Your company might be just fine—until it’s not

When was it clear that BlackBerry was on its last legs? Around 2013, when its top line had already halved. Yet it had clocked its record revenues just two years earlier.

When Apple launched its first iPhone in 2007, quickly followed by the first Android phone in 2008, BlackBerry still had reason to feel secure. It dominated its chosen market: executives and business professionals who relied on email on the go. For that audience, BlackBerry was the gold standard in mobile communication. A proper keyboard; secure email; robust encryption—what was not to like? In airports, boardrooms, and on private jets, the world’s most influential people all had BlackBerrys clutched in hand.

But BlackBerry wasn’t just complacent; it was openly dismissive. It saw these newcomers as purveyors of toys, novelties for the non-serious. Meanwhile, Apple and Android were speeding up their march from the consumer market to the business user, fueled by the power of app stores that quickly transformed these new devices into productivity powerhouses. And to top it off? They were cooler and more intuitive to use.

BlackBerry continued to see revenue growth for a couple of years, with revenues peaking in 2011 before beginning a steep nosedive. Numbers can look incredible on the surface, even when a business is skating on thin ice. Nokia, too, seemed in robust health before its own plunge around the same time. HP, a PC titan, saw a swift decline soon after it reached its high point.

Closer to home, we see similar examples of once-dominant organizations that looked perfectly fine—until, quite suddenly, they weren’t.

How does this happen? One day, you’re on top; the next, you’re in freefall. I thought Jim Collins nailed it in his 2009 book How the Mighty Fall, where he observed, “When you are at the top of the world…your very power and success might cover up the fact that you’re ALREADY on the path of decline.”

The first step on the path to decline can be summed up in a single word: comfort. Once we feel successful and accomplished, with not a competitor in sight, it doesn’t take long before we roll out the red carpet for complacency. Success is its own trap. Leadership often becomes too busy celebrating yesterday’s win to notice that the game has already changed. When hunger fades, innovation is often the first casualty. Bureaucracy seeps in, decision-making slows, and boldness shrivels on the vine.

And often, the market screams out its warnings. Consumer tastes shift, new players offer fresh and enticing alternatives, younger customers shun the old guard’s products. But who’s listening? The bloated and the overconfident believe that their customers love them just as they are—sometimes mere weeks or months before a catastrophic migration of those very customers begins. Blockbuster scoffed at streaming. Kodak couldn’t envision a world without film. Their record-breaking revenues hid the tectonic shifts happening beneath the surface.

So, what’s the antidote? Complacency is the silent killer. Companies that endure never bask in past glories. They don’t take their record numbers too seriously, nor do they display their corporate awards like talismans. Their leaders are ever-vigilant, never fully satisfied, and always a bit wary of praise. They listen intently to every sound in their ecosystem, from the direct voices of customers to the murmurs of employees and the whispers of suppliers. They actively seek signals of change within their industries and stay sharp.

Companies that stand the test of time also prioritize relationships that endure. In both business and life, what helps us survive the storm? Our connections. Those who operate with a strong sense of empathy and real connection to their partners weather many downturns. The people who work with and for us need to feel they are part of something meaningful. Otherwise, they’ll be the first to jump ship at the first sign of trouble.

Lastly, to stay competitive, we must stay relentlessly curious. We cannot maintain vigilance without genuine curiosity. Curiosity must be embedded within the company culture, not just reserved for select corners. Every employee should feel empowered to explore and challenge established ideas, to question accepted norms, and to be a bit pesky, even cheeky, about finding new and better ways. Leaders who play the long game not only tolerate dissent but also encourage it, knowing that creative tension often brings the best ideas to light.

To stay on top, you must constantly ask difficult, probing questions: What’s next? What are we overlooking? Are we seeing the world as it truly is, or simply as we wish it to be? What are our customers’ biggest complaints? Which of our assumptions are starting to look shaky? What conditions could lead to our undoing? These questions aren’t easy to ask, especially when things seem to be going swimmingly. But ask them you must—at your very next strategy session, if not sooner.

To stifle curiosity is to kill any ability to foresee and adapt to change. Without it, we risk becoming the next cautionary tale, standing on top of the world only to go slipping and sliding into irrelevance.

(Sunday Nation, 3 November 2024)

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